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<div class="content fl mt10 mb10"> <div class="w660 fl mr10" id="w600"> <div class="zixun-detail mb10"> <div class="article">能源局新批近3000万千瓦风电项目<br> <../div> <div style="text-align:center; line-height:24px; padding-bottom:10px;">http:../../www.chinafengji.net <span style="margin:0 15px;">2013-03-20 08:34:36<../span> <span class="red">中国证券报<../span><../div> <div class="lh24"><p> 　　3月19日，国家能源局网站消息称，能源局近日公布“十二五”第三批风电项目核准计划，新核准的项目规模合计2872万千瓦。至此，能源局“十二五”以来核准的风电项目超过8000万千瓦。<../p> <div> <../div> <div> 　　按照能源局规定，这逾8000万千瓦列入核准计划的项目等同于核发了前期工作的批复文件，即“小路条”。业内分析人士普遍认为，在国家发改委“大路条”（开工建设）审批依旧收紧的背景下，这8000万千瓦项目短期内难以转化为市场容量，加之“限电”导致的风电可利用小时数每况愈下，决定了风电全行业短期内仍难言“脱困”。<../div> <div> <../div> <div> 　　实质性利好有限<../div> <div> <../div> <div> 　　据了解，列入“十二五”第三批风电核准计划的项目共491个，总装机容量2797万千瓦。此外，安排促进风电并网运行和消纳示范项目4个，总装机容量75万千瓦。上述两类项目合计2872万千瓦。能源局此前已分两批核准5200万千瓦风电项目，这意味着“十二五”以来共计有超过8000万千瓦的风电项目将开始前期工作，具备开工条件。<../div> <div> <../div> <div> 　　但华泰证券分析师指出，能源局近两年基本上保持年均25GW的“小路条”审批节奏，并采用集中批复的形式。但是，这些项目后续仍需要得到土地、环评、并网的审核，才可最终获取发改委的“大路条”，进入实质性建设阶段。因此，该分析师认为，在风电政策层面并没有改变“收紧大路条审批”的情况下，能源局此举对行业不会产生实质性影响，预计未来3年风电年均吊装容量仍会维持在15ＧＷ左右的水平。<../div> <div> <../div> <div> 　　尽管按照中国风能协会最新发布的数据，截至2012年底，全国风电累计装机容量已突破7532万千瓦，同比增长20.8%。但据能源局最新统计，目前我国风电发电量仅占全部电力消费量的2%。这表明，风电占一次能源消费量的比重仍较低。而按照规划目标，到“十二五”末，可再生能源占一次能源的消费比重将达到11.4%，其中风电所占比重被认为至少应占到3%。<../div> <div> <../div> <div> 　　考验开发商承受力<../div> <div> <../div> <div> 　　目前，大量弃风限电已成为风电行业的顽疾，且有愈演愈烈之势。按照能源局最新公布的数据，2012年全年弃风电量约200亿千瓦时，这比2011年全年约100亿千瓦时的数字几乎增加一倍。弃风现象的加重直接导致的后果便是风电平均利用小时数的下降。这被市场分析人士认为将直接影响风电开发商的业绩表现。<../div> <div> <../div> <div> 　　能源局数据显示，去年风电全国平均利用小时数比2011年有所下降，为1890小时，个别省（区）风电利用小时数甚至下降到1400小时左右。按照专家测算，在合理弃风情况下，风电年利用小时数应可达到2500小时以上。<../div> <div> <../div> <div> 　　国泰君安分析师表示，一直以来，对风电开发商而言影响业绩的最重要因素是可利用小时数。在同等装机规模和同等电价水平下，可利用小时数越高则意味着开发商同期发电量越高，进而表明发电收入也越高。<../div> <div> <../div> <div> 　　国内最大的风电开发商龙源电力近日表示，2012年全年公司限电比重达到13.8%，限电电量在25亿到26亿千瓦时。2012年龙源电力因限电导致的损失达13亿元，这几乎相当于公司2012年上半年归属股东的全部净利润。<../div> <div> <../div> <div> 　　开发商业绩的下滑必将影响其新增风电场投资的积极性，也进而导致上游设备制造商订单量的减少。华泰证券分析师认为，在新增订单有限的背景下，风电机组价格上涨的空间不大，整机制造商要维持企业毛利率水平，只有选择继续降低生产成本。<../div> <div> <../div> <div class="mt30" style="text-align:right;"><a href="javascript:window.print();">【打印】<../a> <a href="javascript:window.close();" class="mr10 ml10">【关闭】<../a><../div> <../div> <div class="keyword">文章关键字： <a href="....../news../tag--1.html" target="_blank"><../a><../div> <../div> <div class="w325 fl mr10"> <div class="border-g"> <div class="title"> <div class="title2"><span class="fr"><a href="....../news../19-1.html">更多<../a><../span>职场动态<../div> <../div> <div class="d-list"> <ul> <li><span class="fr">[03-27]<../span><a href="....../news../detail-20130327-12196.html" target="_blank">大老板会忽视你的4个原因<../a><../li> <li><span class="fr">[03-27]<../span><a href="....../news../detail-20130327-12195.html" 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